Confidence Score
Definition
A confidence score is the owner's stated likelihood, usually on a 1-to-10 scale or as a percentage, that a Key Result will reach its target by the end of the cycle. It is recorded at every check-in, which lets a team see which goals are drifting weeks before a final score exists to tell them.
The score is a forecast, not a progress bar, so it deliberately diverges from percent complete. A Key Result sitting at 40% of its target in week five can still carry high confidence if the work that moves it lands in week nine. Teams commonly start aspirational Key Results around 5/10 by convention and read the direction of travel rather than the absolute number: three consecutive weeks of decline is the signal, and the one-line reason attached to the drop is the part that gets acted on.
Confidence is self-reported, which makes it sensitive to how bad news is received. Where a falling score triggers scrutiny of the owner rather than help with the obstacle, scores cluster at 7 and stay there until the final fortnight of the quarter, when they all drop together. The distribution of confidence scores usually says more about the culture than about the goals.
Example
KR: lift enterprise win rate from 17% to 26%. Week 2: 7/10. Week 5: 6/10 — 'two deals slipped to Q4.' Week 8: 3/10 — 'pricing objection in 4 of 6 losses.' The week-8 drop pulled the pricing review forward a full quarter; the KR finished at 0.33.
See also: OKR software